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  • sledge_hammer
    06-23 12:38 PM
    I don't believe the housing market slump will last more than 3 years!

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Echo boomers a lifeline for embattled U.S. housing | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE55L0AO20090622)

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The children of baby boomers will eventually resuscitate the pummeled U.S. housing market, Harvard University said on Monday, but in the meantime, limits on income and credit are sustaining the three-year bust.

    The highest unemployment in almost 26 years, record foreclosures and rigid lending threaten to overcome emerging home sales progress despite unprecedented efforts by the Obama administration, Harvard's State of the Nation's Housing 2009 report said.

    Echo boomers, the children of the post-World War Two baby boomer generation, offer a massive source of support for housing, the study said. The generation is entering the peak home buying and renting ages of 25 to 44 and numbers over five million people more than did their parents' record-sized group in the 1970s.

    "Echo boomers are larger than the baby boomer population. Couple that with immigration and you have the seeds, the possibility of a housing recovery," Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, said in an interview.

    The group will bolster demand for the next 10 years and beyond, supporting the sagging housing market even if immigration drops, the study said.

    The challenges are myriad, however, said Retsinas, a widely followed housing industry expert and former senior official in the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

    "We have to find a way to stabilize housing finance in this country," he said.

    A healthy housing market is integral to a growing economy. In the current cycle, the housing crash has propelled the economy into its longest recession since the Great Depression. Jobs lost to the recession have derailed any housing recovery.

    "Seedlings of the housing recovery have to come through this thicket of job losses and foreclosures," Retsinas said. "The housing market has not seen these challenges for over 60 years."

    Mortgage rates have risen from all-time lows in the past two months despite massive government steps to keep them down.

    Foreclosures escalate as federal efforts to keep borrowers in their houses cannot keep pace with loan failures caused by job losses or punishing home price erosion.

    THIN SILVER LININGS

    Home sales have started to pick up, thanks mostly to a first-time buyer tax credit this year of up to $8,000 and demand for foreclosure properties at bargain-basement prices.

    "While we do see some signs of stabilization, you can barely see those silver linings," Retsinas said.

    The lending pendulum swung vastly after the unsustainable five-year record home price surge early this decade. Lenders clamped down after lax conditions spawned record home sales and then fueled the torrent of foreclosures.

    Now, more than 85 percent of mortgage loans are created through the government and its agencies. Private lending companies either shut down or slammed on the credit brakes to prevent a repeat of major losses on flawed loans.

    What happens to mortgage availability currently rests in the hands of the federal government, the report said.

    But Retsinas noted: "Eventually you want a sustainable credit system, and that has to include private capital."

    The share of minority households, hurt most in the housing crisis, will rise to 35 percent in 2020 from 29 percent in 2005, the study projected. Those households typically have lower average incomes and wealth, and higher unemployment.

    In Cleveland, Boston and Washington, DC, price declines at the low end of the market through December were more than twice those at the high end in percentage terms, while in San Francisco they were nearly three times greater.

    Real median household incomes in all age groups under 55 have not risen since 2000, the Harvard study said. For the first time in at least 40 years, there is a chance that median household income will end the decade lower than where it started.

    The severity of the recession could hold incomes down for years.

    "The number of households that were severely cost-burdened -- people paying over 50 percent of their income for housing -- has grown dramatically," Retsinas said. The number spiked by 30 percent to 17.9 million between 2001 and 2007, the most recent data available.

    "The reality is that it's not just the cost of a house, but it's how much you make," he said. "Of course as people struggle with their jobs, as they lose that second job, they lose that overtime, their income drops make it more difficult to pay."

    Echo boomers will expand the number of needed housing units. But they also likely will enter the housing market with lower real incomes than people the same age did a decade ago, the study said.

    "While fundamentally we see what could be the foundation for long-term recovery, we still have to get through today's challenges," said Retsinas.




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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-22 02:55 PM
    A woman and her little girl were visiting the grave of the little girl's grandmother.
    On their way through the cemetery back to the car, the little girl asked, "Mommy, do they ever bury two people in the same grave?"

    "Of course not, dear." replied the mother, "Why would you think that?"

    "The tombstone back there said 'Here lies a lawyer and an honest man."




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  • ArkBird
    01-06 05:32 PM
    I am not supporting Hamas or their core belief. I am not going that far. What i'm saying is, how can one country kill school kids and go scot-free???

    When we cried for terror victims, why don't we do the same for palestinians who are victims of state sponsored terrorism???

    If we want to discuss about Ideology of other faiths and different groups, we can open one more thread. You wouldn't want to open another thread. Because you know how nasty those ideologies are? Every religion/group have their own ideology and they are nothing but brutal.


    I don't know of any religion which touts killing on innocent people just because they don't believe in your ideology which for me is the biggest crime against humanity.




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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-22 03:08 PM
    One day, a teacher, a garbage collector, and a lawyer all died and went to heaven.

    St. Peter was there, having a bad day because heaven was getting crowded. When they got to the gate, St. Peter informed them that there would be a test to get into Heaven: They each had to answer a single question.

    To the teacher, he said, "What was the name of the ship that crashed into an iceberg and sunk with all its passengers?"

    The teacher thought for a second, and then replied: "That would have been the Titanic, right?" St. Peter let him through the gate.

    Next, St. Peter turned to the garbage man, and figuring that heaven didn't really need all the stink that this guy would bring in, decided to make the question a little harder. "How many people died on the ship?"

    The garbage man guessed 1228, to which St. Peter said, "That happens to be right. Go ahead."

    St. Peter then turned to the lawyer. "What were their names?"



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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-07 12:47 AM
    After his day's sightseeing, an American touring Spain stopped at a local restaurant.

    While sipping his wine, he noticed a sizzling, scrumptious looking platter being served at the next table. Not only did it look good, the smell was wonderful.

    He asked the waiter, "What is that you just served?"

    The waiter replied, " Ah senor, you have excellent taste! Those are bull's testicles from the bull fight this morning. A delicacy!"

    The American, though momentarily daunted when he learned the origin of the dish said, "What the hell, I'm on vacation! Bring me an order!"

    The waiter replied, "I am so sorry senor. There is only one serving a day since there is only one bull fight each morning. If you come early tomorrow and place your order, we will be sure to serve you this delicacy!"

    The next morning the American returned and placed his order. That evening he was served the one and only special delicacy of the day. After a few bites, and inspecting the contents of his platter, he called to the waiter and said, "These are much, much smaller than the ones I saw you serve yesterday!"

    The waiter promptly replied, "Si, senor!" Sometimes the bull wins!




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  • mariner5555
    04-22 03:52 PM
    this is from schiller ..an economist ..I am sure he knows more about housing than others ..I guess this is a worse case scenario (if not the worst).

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080422/economy_shiller.html?.v=2
    ----
    Economist cautions housing slump could exceed drop of the Great Depression, require bailouts

    NEW HAVEN, Conn. (AP) -- An influential economist who long predicted the housing market bubble cautioned Tuesday that the slump in the U.S. housing market could cause prices to fall more than they did in the Great Depression and bailouts will be needed so millions don't lose their homes.

    Yale University economist Robert Shiller, pioneer of the widely watched Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index, said there's a good chance housing prices will fall further than the 30 percent drop in the historic depression of the 1930s. Home prices nationwide already have dropped 15 percent since their peak in 2006, he said.

    "I think there is a scenario that they could be down substantially more," Shiller said during a speech at the New Haven Lawn Club.

    Shiller's Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index is considered a strong measure of home prices because it examines price changes of the same property over time, instead of calculating a median price of homes sold during the month.

    Shiller, who admitted he has a reputation for being bearish, said real estate cycles typically take years to correct.

    Home prices rose about 85 percent from 1997 to 2006 adjusted for inflation, the biggest national housing boom in U.S. history, Shiller said.

    "Basically we're in uncharted territory," Shiller said. "It seems we have developed a speculative culture about housing that never existed on a national basis before."

    Many people became convinced that housing prices would increase 10 percent annually, a notion Shiller called crazy.



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  • dealsnet
    01-07 11:05 AM
    You want what??
    Bombay is attacked, our mother land is attacked. Our brothers and sisters are killed. They didn't done anything wrong. They are not maratis alone, from all over India. Children of Mother India. They are killed not during war, or during firing rockets, but were going for work, for feeding their family. Bombay is not a war Zone or disputed territory.
    You are furious, because your fellow muslim are the killers. You are loving the religion above the nation you live. Minority among the muslims live india, but support the pakistan or any terrorist only because of religion. Go to pakistan or saudi, if you don't like india. Love India or leave India. Same apply to USA.
    I have seen in bangalore muslims support Pakistan during cricket match between India and pakistan. I have heard they clapping evry time Indian wickets are fallen.

    After getting my GC, i visited this forum many times, helped a couple of forum members on how to contact congressman, sent them the draft letter etc on how to approach Ombudsman, congressman etc. I took help from this forum and i will try to return my favor to this forum.

    I highly regarded this forum, its core team and its members until "Mumbai attacked" thread was open. I knew that it will be a nasty thread and it will foment hatred towards one particular religion and its followers. And it did cause a lot of damage to members of one particular group including myself.

    Core team didn't stop this. They didn't even reminded the rules and regulations of this forum. That led to IV turning into HIV. This is not the right forum to discuss about politics especially war/terrorism etc. I don't know if IV will make it as a policy.

    I created this thread just to remind people that there are so many ruthless people/group/organization around the world that kill innocents mercilessly. I didn't create this thread to rally support for any particular group or speak against any particular faith or any particular country.

    I could have started this thread when the killing began two weeks back but i didn't. I started this when innocent school kids were massacred using missles and later it was justified. There are still so many heartless/mindless members sitting and supporting/justifying this brutal killing.

    Anyway, i'll sign off and i won't post any more message in this thread again.




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  • sledge_hammer
    03-24 07:54 AM
    Thanks for your insight. Its about time most of us here understand not to take immigration rules lightly, and I've been preaching this for the longest time already!

    People here had their own justification about "consulting". Well, this is what they get for exploiting loopholes.

    A lot of the list and questions that you are being asked is what department of labor asks when they are investigating possible h-1b violations. What they have asked you is usually in those types of investigations.

    There is a lot of things going on behind the scenes that many people are not aware of or totally clueless to.

    Many people are trying to make the GC easier for themselves whereas the real focus should be a defensive measure.

    Right now;

    VERMONT SERVICE CENTER is denying many, many h-1b's. These h-1b's are for companies who file greencards. If they are assessing that these companies do not have temporary jobs that require a degree then do you not think it is going to gravitate towards employment base greencards?

    They are figuring out through requesting of payroll records, w'2's, consulate denials, etc., that many, many people never joined companies; didn't get paid, transferred to other companies shortly upon arrival.

    It looks like USCIS/DOL have gone to zero tolerance and have devised ways to pierce through favorable rules protecting immigrant wannabe's.

    They pierce through 245k by going through possible immigration fraud by listing employment in the g-325a when a person didn't get paid and may not have had employer/employee relationship (i have actually seen this where USCIS cited possible immigration fraud due to this issue to trump 245k).

    USCIS is starting to challenge companies whether they have permanent jobs instead of temporary jobs; which looks like where this particular OP is going to go through. If they determine the job is temporary then that is going to spell doom for the EB greencard for him.

    People decided they were going to poke USCIS and take complaints to senators/congressmen (whom you all think are your friends but many of you do not realize that they are not your friends) and now everyong is going to see how the system in this country works. We are currently in a new day and age with immigration. Everyone should buckle their seat belts as this is going to be a real bumpy ride.



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  • sroyc
    10-01 11:38 AM
    Irrespective of who wins, the state of the economy will decide whether immigrant friendly bills will be passed by the Congress. When the times are good, when most Americans are happy with their jobs, very few people will spend their time opposing bills that favor us.

    I've a very pessimistic view of the next 2 years. Most of the growth in the last 6-7 years was fueled by debt. Bailout or not, there will be more regulation on lending practices and consumers will find it harder to use their credit cards or home equity line of credit to buy things they really don't need. By some estimates, consumer spending accounts for 60-70% of the GDP, so you can imagine that any slowdown in spending will have a significant effect. I think that recovery from this downturn will be slow and painful. The only thing that can give the economy a huge boost is rapid growth in a new industry like green energy. It won't be easy to switch to green technology because of the strong hold of lobbyists from traditional energy companies over the Congress and it'll take a lot of political will and government spending to spur the green revolution. Will that happen under Obama or McCain? I've no clue. At least Obama has a plan to invest 15 billion dollars a year on renewable energy for the next 10 years.

    Meanwhile, I'm not holding my breath for another immigration bill. It's time to explore opportunities in other countries - India/Singapore/China/U.K./Canada/Australia.




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  • xyzgc
    12-22 11:35 PM
    Muslims have a very proud history (along with issues like most religions/races). Lets hope the people on all sides tone down the rheotric and live and let live

    Hindus also have a history and we are proud of it.
    Despite all the agressions by the barbaric islamic hordes, Hinduism has not only survived, it has actually flourished.
    We are proud of the fact that we didn't attack other countries and pillage other lands.



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  • prioritydate
    01-10 10:18 PM
    First of all, thanks for converting my argument about Europeans and native peoples into Muslims and non-Muslims. Shows us where our respective prejudices and biases lie. I am very happy when my comments on any situation are turned into a broad 'us vs them' thing. It just shows us that our primitive and primal instincts from the time when we split from the apes are still alive and kicking in some people. Its pretty fascinating for me.

    Secondly there is a difference between military strikes (retaliatory or otherwise), and acts of massacres. Pretty much the same as there is a difference between military confrontation and ethnic cleansing. If you condone and defend the latter, then you are pretty much defending ethnic cleansing. Striking Hamas targets are military strikes. Holing up a hundred members of an extended family into a house, and then destroying the house is an act of massacre. When we defend acts like the latter one, we defend ethnic cleansing.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/massacre-of-a-family-seeking-sanctuary-1297577.html

    Why you are not raising hue and cry for Sudan massacre? Oh! muslims killing muslims or muslims killing Xians! May be that is fine with you!




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  • smuggymba
    07-28 01:37 PM
    I regret the day when Obama became the president, he is just another politician who does not give a damn about EB2,EB3....he is just worried about "re-uniting families" (aka supporter of illegal immigration)



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  • NKR
    07-14 03:52 PM
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    I guess about 30 to 35K (out of 40K) visas goes to EB2 for both India and china. However in Eb3 both In and China gets 3K each. Just compare 30K vs 3k.


    If 3000 per year for EB3 had set the availability date to 2001, shouldn�t have 30K for EB2 made it current long ago?. If India and China get about 30K visas per year my PD of early 2004 would have been current long ago. So there is something wrong in your logic there.

    Your supply and demand theory for EB3 I could be true.




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  • go_guy123
    09-27 12:31 PM
    It's only the visa numbers...if not 1 year,it will be on the road by two years.Cheer up...I myself have negative feelings what will happen to my family future here.I just talk to myself,Whether I have to apply for Canadian PR for back up.It sure does kill our minds.

    Cheer up...We all will be safe by 2009.It will move faster.

    EB3 I 2004 Jul.

    Canada PR can no longer be backup...since 2002 the new rules have are requiring Canadian PRs to physically stay in Canada for 2 out of 5 years to
    maintain PR.



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  • satishku_2000
    05-16 05:24 PM
    That's called pandering. To unions like IEEE and hispanic vote base. These ppl don't have any interest in America's competitiveness or interests of people at large rather work in the interests of their party and their re-election.

    But I am suprised at the attitudes of some forums members who want to screw the ppl behind us.
    Anyway I agree, we should be worried about delays to i-485 processing if 11 million ppl are added to USCIS queue.


    Hope you got me right when I asked these rhetorical questions. I dont want to screw any one behind me ... I am all for expanding american dream for as many people as possible ..




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  • sledge_hammer
    01-06 01:32 PM
    Let me first say that it saddens me deeply to see innocent civilians dying. I pray that the war ends so peace is restored on both sides.

    Now coming to your point - there is a BIG difference between what happened in Mumbai and what's happening now in Gaza! The Mumbai attacks were targeted towards civilians directly. Grenades were thrown and shots were fired at people in railway stations, hospitals and hotels. The situation in Gaza is different because war has been declared. And Israel is NOT targetting civilians on purpose. Sure, innocent citizens have been killed, but not a a result of direct and deliberated attacks against them.

    The declaration of war is a very important point to note. If Pakistan had declared war against India, and in the process if Indian civilians are killed in the crossfire, then I would not go about complaining the way you are now. If I didn't want implications of war, I would urge my govt. to accept defeat and thus save the lives of its citizens.

    Laws of War
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_war

    I think we discuss these kind of news in IV. Don't you know that? In the same forum i have heard people saying Isreal is a peace loving nation and they never commit crime.

    Look at what is happening now. Can we justify killing innocent kids? Who would kill kids? How evil one should be in order to kill school kids?

    How evil this world is, watching these attrocities silently. While pakistani terrorists committed attrocities in India, whole world blamed the entire Muslim communities.

    Now where are those peace loving people have gone while Muslims are brutally murdered and innocent kids are brutally killed by missles?



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  • rockstart
    07-14 02:11 PM
    vdlrao's figues tell the story

    Second: advanced degrees or exceptional ability 14,362--8,557-- 20,255-- 42,550-- 44,316-- 15,406-- 32,534 --42,597-- 21,911-- 44,162


    2006 only 21,911 visa for EB2? come on average is around 40K and they just halved it. Its Eb2 that should feel bad. Else the dates would have been in 2006 much earlier.




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  • my2cents
    04-14 03:24 PM
    Why is tax benefits such an issue:confused:. It is after all tax on interest, not on the principle. It declines every year and probably worth nothing in 10 years? For every 100K you borrow you are charged an interest of 100K for a typical loan. Rents are cheap compared to the owning a home. This is why home prices are falling. Until they reach equilibrium, housing will continue to fall. Assuming the difference is 1000$, if you rent for 7 years you will be saving 80K(approximately)- which means you pay a bigger downpayment and hence saving 80K in interest.
    All these calculations are done assuming that the home price stays flat. If it falls, you gain additionally by how much if falls. Plus there is insurance, property tax.

    Again, it may not be applicable to ur situation.

    in my case, i am paying $400 in equity and $300 in tax deduction so i am paying effectively $1300 .(My mortgage is $2k, includes eveything(Insurace,HOA).In $1300, i can get 1-2 bedroom in DC Metro area depending upon location.
    Yes, over a period of time tax benefits decreases but equity increases. so i stay , and after 10 years i will be paying $800 evey month towards principal.

    now depend upon when i sell , if i sell and price is same as when i bought, only advantage i have i enjoyed 3 bedroom instead of 1-2 which may not be needed depending upon family size/need.

    If i would have bought in 2006 (peak time) calculation is different and i may be loosing $200-300 per month based upon interest rate. (Currenlt i am on 5.25% 30 year fixed) .

    Another big factor is interest rate. if you buy house (when it is has bottom) you may end paying same if interest rate is high. that's why i think it is best time to buy since interest rate is low and housing is slow and good inventory.

    Location..Location.. Location...is most important thing.
    worst hit market are ohio,michigan because Big 3 automakers are suffereing.

    more you stay in house ..7 , 10 or 15 years. Your equity build faster.

    Best use i think i was able to do.. took out a equity loan which is now 6% and paid my ICICI loan(house in india) which was averaging 12-13%.

    but again if i have to sell now ..then i am sure i will loose money because it will not sell.

    Some of my frnd bought house in $800K in DC metro. yes they lost 20% big amount ...but there main worry is cash flow. You need dual income all the time to pay mortgage.

    My only advise is always limit ur mortgage to one salary. it may means that you have to commute longer, may be remote area.

    Media is the one who created the hype & and also they are paritally responsible for downturn.




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  • GC_Applicant
    04-09 01:05 AM
    Thanks for the info. Did you enquire about FHA loans., and how hard or easy it is to get.




    sanju
    04-07 05:51 PM
    I agree, new H1b is not our concern..well not directly or immediately.
    maybe the way to approach this is to ask that a PERM/LC once approved be considered as fulfilling the requirement for any certification needed for the job- in any case if it's the same process, it amounts to useless duplication to keep certifying a job again and again...

    Duplication, triplication of work to file H1s. That is what anti-H1 guys want. They want to make the system so difficult that filing H1s renewals will be impossible. It is possible to talk to people who are ready to listen. These guys are in no mood to talk. That is why suggesting them anything will be like talking to a wall. IV should oppose this bill totally and completely. We should all educate everybody we know, as Administator said, we should inform our friends and employers to get their support.




    sanju
    08-06 06:16 PM
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